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1 - 10 van 15 voor forecasting errors
Microsoft Word - discussion61.doc
... but may also reinforce underwriting cycles if price signals are distorted by substantial forecasting errors. on the downside, release of information by the government and the insurers' ... and forecasting errors by individual health plans and thus may enhance financial stability. for 2002, however, both the government and the insurers association, produced substantial forecast errors. these errors ...
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Microsoft Word - memo119.doc
... that one third of their forecasting errors may be attributed to wrong assumptions, e.g. on world trade, oil prices. fpb even finds most of their forecasting errors stem from international shocks. ... make policy makers and journalists aware of the underlying difficulties in any forecasting exercise. 3. the method of forecasting does not allow confidence intervals to be estimated the third reason ...
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memo241.pdf
... 2008), who use out-of-sample forecasting to test the predictive ability of dividend yields and other factors. they find unstable parameter estimates and poor forecasting performance, compared to forecasts based ... the results in goyal and welch primarily show the effect of finite-sample bias on forecasting errors, and do not deny the existence of a structural relation between dividend yield and ...
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testing consumers asymmetric reaction wealth changes pdf
... and preliminary 2004 figures show a modest increment by 0.1%1. why these large forecasting errors? and why an overestimation and not an underestimation? this phenomenon is not common in the ... in other countries. the symmetry of this elasticity may therefore be partly responsible for the forecasting errors quoted above (together with the most general difficulty of assessing the size of the financial ...
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Microsoft Word - rapport visitatiecie 2010.doc
... forecasts generally compare favourably to the forecasting by other (inter)national organisations. like a number of other institutions, cpb has experienced large forecast errors in the context of the financial ... from forecasting and modelling to doing more policy analysis. the committee understands much of the forecasting work is a service function of the cpb. a substantial part of the forecasting ...
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Microsoft Word - discussion164.doc
... the number of banks within a country, we cluster the huber-white standard errors to obtain consistent stan- dard errors.19 because our measures for bank regulation and supervision are estimated, we ... case of basel core principles. imf working paper 01 62. stock, j., watson, m., 2002. forecasting using principal components from a large num- ber of predictors. journal of the american statistical ...
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Onderzoeksmemorandum (set-up) [PFP#301156075]
... forecasting for the (very) short term, based on past behaviour. for the horizons common in macroeconomic forecasting, neither past behaviour nor the fundamental driving forces provide a reliable basis for forecasting ... demand. in spite of these fundamental problems, some forecasting institutes have recently started to supply error margins or standard errors with the main variables in their forecast. ...
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Microsoft Word - don.doc
... the model parameters. if uncertainty about policy effects is derived only from the estimated standard errors of the parameter estimations, the results will be misleading. on the one hand, the ... because the policy maker decides on the instrument values and the expert takes responsibility for forecasting the other variables. in the current dutch institutional context, this means that the wage rate ...
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impact demographic uncertainty public finances netherlands pdf
... europe) project3 and apply specifically to the netherlands. while the scale of the assumed errors in forecasting are based on the expert judgement of the model builders, they are not the ... economic studies, 56, pp. 1-19. alho, j., 1990, stochastic methods in population forecasting, international journal of forecasting, 6, pp. 521-530. alho, j. and n. maeaettaenen, 2007, informational assumptions, ...
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memo168.pdf
... the economic data for the stochastic simulations. despite all this there may be some remaining errors for which the authors wish to blame each other. contents 1 introduction advantages and ... rational expectations with behaviour based only on the expected values of the random variables (point forecasting). 6.1 full uncertainty looking at the effects of uncertainty on behaviour implies, in this ...
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