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1 - 9 van 9 voor stochastic debt simulation
dp212.indd
... stochastic debt simulation and calculate the probability of debt-to-gdp ratios rising above some threshold. this is applied on historical data for seven oecd countries. in particular, the probability of debt ...
cpb.nl
bijlage_jaarrapportage2008.pdf
... , conferenties, e.d. presentaties (voor zover een schriftelijk stuk is behandeld) adema, y. ageing, debt and inflation in a monetary union, netspar pension workshop, 26 juni 2008. 6 adema, ... discussion papers lanser, d. en h.c. kranendonk, 2008, investigating uncertainty in macroeconomic forecasts by stochastic simulation, cpb discussion paper 112. cpb memoranda bijlsma, m.j. en w.b.c. suyker, ...
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Microsoft Word - discussion52
... variables 31 5.4 goodness of fit 34 5.5 simulation results 37 6 conclusion 39 references 41 7 summary although ... of (2.1a) allows for randomness in the model, e.g. stochastic future wages. the most important derivations from this dynamic programming model ... 0.24) non-single woman year dummies children high income mortgage debt house value incentive variables c incentive to retire incentive to ...
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fiscal prefunding response demographic uncertainty pdf
... dependency ratio (%) total dependency ratio (%) government finance % gdp primary expenditures revenue primary deficit debt economic development gdp (billions of euros) labour supply (thousands of fte's) capital ... final simulation year (2205) were omitted from the sample. note that, in the baseline simulation, the total population million. we have found that increasing the number of stochastic ...
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impact demographic uncertainty public finances netherlands pdf
... scenario analysis, which more or less is the standard, or stochastic simulation analysis. compared with scenario analysis, stochastic simulation analysis is much more demanding, both in terms of time and ... call for precautionary saving on part of the government (or, equivalently, excessive public debt reduction).15 related, the analysis presented here demonstrates that current fiscal policies may ...
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memo1960.pdf
... character of the robust control model is convenient. it makes stochastic 3 simulation within an overlapping generation model to study insurance against macro- ... on household behaviour with uncertainty. the table reveals households take debt at the start of their working life to invest in ... 1 (aj -bfj)xj +c j+1 (4.13) which makes stochastic simulation easy to handle in case the decision maker's fear ...
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memo168.pdf
... stochastic simulation analysis differs from the other two types of uncertainty analysis in the number of simulations or variants. indeed, stochastic simulations use hundreds or thousands of simulations. therefore, stochastic simulation ... (lower) interest rate, because it increases (decreases) the interest payments on their debt. we conclude that for working consumers the risk associated with an ...
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memo227.pdf
... policy analysis in the netherlands we present a small-open-economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with distortionary taxation. the model has an overlapping generations ... simulation 3 switching taxes from labour to consumption 26 3.4 simulation 4 increased foreign interest rate 29 3.5 simulation 5 decreased foreign demand 31 3.6 simulation 5 increased government expenditure with debt ...
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129 The Welfare Gains From Stab [PFP#1092202722]
... governments, the stochastic properties of the rates of return on capital installed in their countries and the stochastic properties of ... of domestic goods with high portfolio shares of public debt, while their currencies depreciated against other currencies in the ... the 1976-1994 simulation starts with 13 countries, the 1986-1994 simulation starts with 7 countries and the 1990-1994 simulation starts ...
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