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1 - 10 van 22 voor stochastic simulations
fiscal prefunding response demographic uncertainty pdf
... the baseline simulation, the total population million. we have found that increasing the number of stochastic simulations above 250 does not significantly increase the robustness of the demographic estimates. this number was ... the central policy of a 13.4% point increase. for each of these scenarios, 207 stochastic simulations are run and for each simulation the tax rate is adjusted in the second ...
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impact demographic uncertainty public finances netherlands pdf
... stochastic simulations, i.e. simulations that combine the cge model of the dutch economy gamma with stochastic population projections. key words demographic uncertainty, public finance, stochastic simulations ... paper presents stochastic simulations, i.e. simulations that combine the cge model of the dutch economy gamma with stochastic population projections. stochastic simulation analysis produces ...
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Microsoft Word - memo119.doc
... confidence intervals for the fiscal balance derived from stochastic simulations using their world economy model. the shocks employed in these stochastic simulations are drawn from past shocks to the structural ... only occasionally publishes confidence intervals for gdp growth and inflation forecasts based on stochastic simulations. boe the bank of england presents its forecasts of gdp growth and ...
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memo168.pdf
... stochastic simulation analysis differs from the other two types of uncertainty analysis in the number of simulations or variants. indeed, stochastic simulations use hundreds or thousands of simulations. therefore, stochastic ... have to use stochastic simulations. nevertheless, the results derived in this section are worth noticing because they are useful in the stochastic simulations analysis. if we ...
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dp212.indd
... the estimated fiscal response with the stochastic debt simulation method proposed by budina and van wijnbergen (2008). in particular, these indicators are based on simulations of future debt levels, using ... from near unit root alternatives. in section 5 we address this issue by using stochastic simulations. bohn's methodology has two main components the accounting equation for government debt and ...
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analyzing labour supply elderly people life cycle approach pdf
... more appropriate. in order to approximate the economic effects of balanced budget simulations, we conduct two additional simulations one regarding a cut in the income tax rate, and one ... retirement and disability programs, employer pensions, a consumption floor provided by government welfare programs, stochastic processes for earnings and asset returns, layoff risk, job offer risk, health risk, ...
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Microsoft Word - discussion52
... the right hand side of (2.1a) allows for randomness in the model, e.g. stochastic future wages. the most important derivations from this dynamic programming model (dp model) are the ... 63. this model is suitable for policy simulations with changing incentives at this particular age. the model is however not suitable for policy simulations with changing incentives over the whole range from ...
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auctioning incentive contracts application welfare work programs pdf
... the highest-output auction approach the optimal outcome. moreover, using simulations we observe that the outcomes of the constant-reward ... highest-output auction approach the optimal outcome. section 5 contains simulations on the three simple auctions, the socially optimal mechanism, and ... function b() xdf(x) a solution. let xn be a stochastic variable with distribution function f( ) n-1 2 . note that ...
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rmcpb8.dvi
... productivity j by w( j). firms do not accept all workers in the context of stochastic productivity and minimum wage legislation. denote the minimum productivity level required from a low- and ... a balanced budget in our base projection, using the actual average tax rate simulations first we consider simulations where we increase the number of vacancies posted for relief and training jobs, and ...
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intergenerational risk sharing pdf
... .4 that is, the consumer applies a correction factor to next 3 non-stochastic wages can go together with stochastic equity returns if i) there is depreciation risk and no productivity risk ... . 8 see appendix a.4 for the derivation. 26 5 simulations 5.1 numerical procedure this section reports on numerical simulations with the model. there are two reasons for switching to numerical ...
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